关键词: 旅游业; 服务业; VAR模型; 协整检验; 方差分解

Abstract: Based on vector auto-regression model, cointegration test, Granger causality test, variance decomposition and the relevant data of China from 1985 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical study on the interactive development of tourism industry and service industry in China. It indicates that there is a long-term stability cointegration relation among domestic tourism, Inbound tourism and service industry, elasticity of domestic tourism and inbound tourism to service industry are respectively at about 0.48 and 0.24. With a one-way causal relationship from LNSER to LNDT, service industry fluctuation is mainly affected by fluctuation of itself and inbound tourism consumption fluctuation, domestic tourism fluctuation is mainly affected by fluctuation of itself and inbound tourism, which in turn is mainly affected by fluctuation of itself and domestic tourism. Based on the research conclusions, suggestions are put forward to accelerate the mutual development of tourism and service industry. To promote the interactive development of tourism industry and service industry, great important needs to be attached to the development of tourism industry in the long term and strategic height, many kinds of measures should be taken to spur inbound tourism and domestic tourism to strengthen their pulling effect on service industry, comprehensive development of service industry should be further promoted to create good conditions and environment for more rapid development of tourism industry.

Keywords: tourism industry; service industry; VAR model; cointegration test; variance decomposition