Abstract: This paper establishes a dynamic panel data model and uses sys-GMM estimation method to estimate the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on China’s domestic tourism based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2011. With the rate of GDP as the critical volatility factors, inflation、unemployment and rural-urban income gap as the controlling volatility factors, the empirical results show that: （1）development of domestic tourism has a dynamic continuity, the current period mechanism of evolution effected by the change of the first lagged period. （2）macroeconomic fluctuation on the domestic tourism development has a steady significant positive effect. （3） the inflation rate in the macroeconomic impact of tourism development on the domestic mechanisms plays a dynamic role in promoting. （4）the first lagged period of the unemployment rate showed steady significant negative effect on domestic tourism development, and the unemployment rate in the macroeconomic impact of tourism development on the domestic mechanisms plays a dynamic role in absorption. （5）The rural-urban income gap showed significant negative effect on domestic tourism development.

Keywords: domestic tourism; macroeconomic fluctuation; SYS-GMM

摘要： 本文选取我国30个省、自治区和直辖市1997~2011年的数据，建立了一个动态面板模型，利用系统广义矩估计法，在考虑国内旅游发展内生性的情况下，分析了宏观经济波动对国内旅游发展影响的动态效应。以国民经济增长率为关键性波动因素，以通货膨胀率、失业率和城乡收入差距为控制性波动因素，实证结果表明：（1）国内旅游发展具有动态持续性，当期国内旅游发展变动趋势受到上一期国内旅游发展演变机制的影响；（2）宏观经济波动对国内旅游发展具有稳健的显著正向影响效应；（3）通货膨胀率在宏观经济波动对国内旅游发展的影响机制中发挥动态促进作用；（4）滞后一期的失业率与国内旅游发展呈现稳健的显著负相关，且失业率在宏观经济波动对国内旅游发展的影响机制中呈现动态吸收作用；（5）城乡收入差距与国内旅游发展呈现显著负相关。

关键词: 国内旅游, 宏观经济波动, 系统广义矩估计