Abstract: Based on the data of international tourism and international trade from 1981 to 2011 in China, the paper uses Vector Auto regression Model（VAR）, the Cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function（ISR）to analyze the relationship between international tourism and international trade. The results showed that:（1）There was a long-range equilibrium relationship between international inbound tourism and international trade.（2）There was an unidirectional Granger causality between international inbound tourism and international trade. The international inbound tourism was not Granger causality of international trade, but the international trade was Granger causality of international inbound tourism.（3）With the economic globalization and integration of international trade, the strength of mutual influence between international tourism and international trade would be further enhanced.

Keywords: international inbound tourism; VAR model; cointegration; granger causality test; impulse response function

摘要： 根据1981~2011年我国入境旅游与对外贸易的相关数据，基于VAR模型，通过协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数（ISR）分析方法系统分析了入境旅游与对外贸易的关系。分析结果表明：①入境外国游客数量与对外出口、进口、进出口总额之间存在长期的稳定的正向关系；②入境外国游客数量与出口、进口、进出口存在单向Granger因果关系，其中出口额是入境外国游客数量的Ggranger原因，入境外国游客数是进口额的Ggranger原因，进出口总额是入境外国游客数量的Ggranger原因；③长期经济发展过程中入境旅游与对外贸易发展之间存在相互影响、相互促进的关系。

关键词: 国际入境旅游, VAR模型, 协整检验, Granger因果检验, 脉冲响应函数