Abstract: The contradiction between supply and demand of city tourism has become more and more prominent with the rapid development of tourism industry, how to evaluate the balance between tourism supply and demand systems in destinations rationally has been becoming a realistic dilemma for city planners. The paper analyzes the relationship of coordinative development between inbound tourism demand system and city supply system in Beijing using coupling theory in physics. Results show that the contradiction between inbound tourism demand and supply in Beijing has been in a dynamic evolution, coupling degree of demand and supply system is in antagonistic stage, the two systems have not reached the stage of benign resonance coupling. Whereas, the coordination effect between supply and demand systems has been increasing year by year；the coupling coordination degree of tourism supply and demand system of Beijing city is in the primary coordination stage currently. Tourism resources and air transport in supply system correlate highly with demand system；it should be taken efforts to improve the quality of them for Beijing future tourism development.

Keywords: tourism supply and demand system; coupling coordination; gray correlation analysis; Beijing city

摘要： 旅游供需矛盾随城市旅游业的发展愈益突出，合理评判旅游供需平衡是众多城市规划管理面临的现实难题。本文借鉴物理学中的耦合评价模型，对北京市入境旅游需求与供给的耦合关系进行实证研究，发现：北京市入境旅游需求与供给间的矛盾一直处于动态演化中，供需系统的耦合度处于拮抗阶段，两系统之间尚未达到良性共振耦合。同时，需求与供给系统的整体协同效应逐年增长；北京市旅游供需系统的耦合协调度目前正处于初级协调阶段。供给系统中的旅游资源、航空运输与入境旅游需求高度关联，今后应继续提升旅游资源品质，强化北京与国际社会的联系，将北京打造成为国际交通枢纽。

关键词: 旅游供需系统, 耦合协调, 灰色关联分析, 北京市