Abstract: Staff turnover is the bottleneck in star-rated hotels development. The paper uses Markov forecast method to analyze human resources shifting in star-rated hotels, with a conclusion of Markov forecast model, speculating the future trends of human resources. The paper also provides evidence for decision makers on achieving co-ordination of supply and demand in human resources, making and carrying out manpower planning program.

Keywords: star-rated hotels; Markov Model; human resource; internal flow; supply forecasting

摘要： 星级饭店人力资源流动频繁是制约饭店发展的瓶颈。本文将运用马尔科夫预测法，对星级饭店人力资源内部流动进行统计和分析，掌握人力资源内部流动规律并建立马尔科夫预测模型，推测出未来人力资源变动趋势，为决策者促进人力资源供求平衡、制定和实施人力资源规划方案等方面提供依据。

关键词: 星级饭店, 马尔科夫模型, 人力资源, 内部流动, 供给预测