北京第二外国语学院学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 25-.

• 旅游业发展研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

入境旅游与对外贸易动态关系研究

林龙飞 易 可   

  1. 湘潭大学旅游管理学院 湖南湘潭 411105
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-27 出版日期:2014-03-31
  • 作者简介:林龙飞(1964~ ),男,湖南长沙人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为旅游文化,旅游企业管理。 易可(1990~ ),男,湖南长沙人,旅游管理专业硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    湖南省社科规划课题“红色旅游游客行为研究”(2010JD17)。

The Dynamic Relationship between Inbound Tourism and International Trade

Lin Longfei / Yi Ke   

  1. School of Tourism Management,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China
  • Received:2013-10-27 Online:2014-03-31

摘要: 根据1981~2011年我国入境旅游与对外贸易的相关数据,基于VAR模型,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数(ISR)分析方法系统分析了入境旅游与对外贸易的关系。分析结果表明:①入境外国游客数量与对外出口、进口、进出口总额之间存在长期的稳定的正向关系;②入境外国游客数量与出口、进口、进出口存在单向Granger因果关系,其中出口额是入境外国游客数量的Ggranger原因,入境外国游客数是进口额的Ggranger原因,进出口总额是入境外国游客数量的Ggranger原因;③长期经济发展过程中入境旅游与对外贸易发展之间存在相互影响、相互促进的关系。

关键词: 国际入境旅游; VAR模型; 协整检验; Granger因果检验; 脉冲响应函数

Abstract: Based on the data of international tourism and international trade from 1981 to 2011 in China, the paper uses Vector Auto regression Model(VAR), the Cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function(ISR)to analyze the relationship between international tourism and international trade. The results showed that:(1)There was a long-range equilibrium relationship between international inbound tourism and international trade.(2)There was an unidirectional Granger causality between international inbound tourism and international trade. The international inbound tourism was not Granger causality of international trade, but the international trade was Granger causality of international inbound tourism.(3)With the economic globalization and integration of international trade, the strength of mutual influence between international tourism and international trade would be further enhanced.

Keywords: international inbound tourism; VAR model; cointegration; granger causality test; impulse response function